NDLI: On the Verge of a Grand Solar Minimum: A Second Maunder Minimum?

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Zachilas, L. Gkana, A.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	We analyze the yearly mean sunspot-number data covering the period 1700 to 2012. We show that the yearly sunspot number is a low-dimensional deterministic chaotic system. We perform future predictions trying to forecast the solar activity during the next five years (2013 – 2017). We provide evidence that the yearly sunspot-number data can be used for long-term predictions. To test and prove that our model is able to predict the Maunder Minimum period (1645 – 1715), we perform long-term post-facto predictions comparing them with the observed sunspot-number values. We also perform long-term future predictions trying to forecast the solar activity up to 2102. Our predictions indicate that the present Cycle 24 is expected to be a low-peak cycle. We conclude that the level of solar activity is likely to be reduced significantly during the next 90 years, somewhat resembling the Maunder Minimum period.
Starting Page	1457
Ending Page	1477
Page Count	21
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00380938
Journal	Solar Physics
Volume Number	290
Issue Number	5
e-ISSN	1573093X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-04-30
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Yearly sunspot number Grand solar minimum Maunder Minimum, solar activity predictions Deterministic chaos Astrophysics and Astroparticles Atmospheric Sciences Extraterrestrial Physics, Space Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Astronomy and Astrophysics Space and Planetary Science

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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