NDLI: Development trend forecasting for coherent light generator technology based on patent citation network analysis

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	You, Hanlin Li, Mengjun Hipel, Keith W. Jiang, Jiang Ge, Bingfeng Duan, Hante
Copyright Year	2017
Abstract	A forecasting methodology for technology development trends is proposed based on a two-level network model consisting of knowledge-transfer among patents and patent subclasses, with the aim to confront the increasing complex challenge in technology investment and management. More specifically, the patents of the “coherent light generators” classification, granted from 1976 to 2014 by examiners of the United States Patent and Trademark Office, are collected and with which the first-level citation network is constructed first. Then, a new approach to assess patent importance from the perspective of topological structure is provided and the second-level citation network, which consists of patent subclasses, is produced with the evaluation results. Moreover, three assessment indices of the subclass citation network are abstracted as impact parameters for technology development trends. Finally, two typical time series models, the Bass and ARIMA model, are utilized and compared for development trend forecasting. Based on the results of evolution prediction and network analysis, the highlighted patent subclasses with more development potential are identified, and the correlation between technology development opportunity and topological structure of the patent citation network is discussed.
Starting Page	297
Ending Page	315
Page Count	19
File Format	PDF
ISSN	01389130
Journal	Scientometrics
Volume Number	111
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15882861
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2017-02-02
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Knowledge-transfer Patent citation network Time series model Coherent light generator technology Technology forecasting Information Storage and Retrieval Library Science
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Library and Information Sciences Computer Science Applications

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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