NDLI: Dynamic learning in behavioral games: A hidden Markov mixture of experts approach

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Dynamic learning in behavioral games: A hidden Markov mixture of experts approach

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Ansari, Asim Montoya, Ricardo Netzer, Oded
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	Over the course of a repeated game, players often exhibit learning in selecting their best response. Research in economics and marketing has identified two key types of learning rules: belief and reinforcement. It has been shown that players use either one of these learning rules or a combination of them, as in the Experience-Weighted Attraction (EWA) model. Accounting for such learning may help in understanding and predicting the outcomes of games. In this research, we demonstrate that players not only employ learning rules to determine what actions to choose based on past choices and outcomes, but also change their learning rules over the course of the game. We investigate the degree of state dependence in learning and uncover the latent learning rules and learning paths used by the players. We build a non-homogeneous hidden Markov mixture of experts model which captures shifts between different learning rules over the course of a repeated game. The transition between the learning rule states can be affected by the players’ experiences in the previous round of the game. We empirically validate our model using data from six games that have been previously used in the literature. We demonstrate that one can obtain a richer understanding of how different learning rules impact the observed strategy choices of players by accounting for the latent dynamics in the learning rules. In addition, we show that such an approach can improve our ability to predict observed choices in games.
Starting Page	475
Ending Page	503
Page Count	29
File Format	PDF
ISSN	15707156
Journal	Quantitative Marketing and Economics
Volume Number	10
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	1573711X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2012-08-05
Publisher Place	Boston
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Learning Behavioral game theory Experimental economics Hidden Markov mixture of experts model Bayesian estimation Statistics for Business/Economics/Mathematical Finance/Insurance Economic Theory Marketing
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Economics, Econometrics and Finance Marketing

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