NDLI: Forecasting the Malmquist productivity index

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Daskovska, Alexandra Simar, Léopold Bellegem, Sébastien
Copyright Year	2009
Abstract	The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) suggests a convenient way of measuring the productivity change of a given unit between two consequent time periods. Until now, only a static approach for analyzing the MPI was available in the literature. However, this hides a potentially valuable information given by the evolution of productivity over time. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic procedure for forecasting the MPI. We compare several approaches and give credit to a method based on the assumption of circularity. Because the MPI is not circular, we present a new decomposition of the MPI, in which the time-varying indices are circular. Based on that decomposition, a new working dynamic forecasting procedure is proposed and illustrated. To construct prediction intervals of the MPI, we extend the bootstrap method in order to take into account potential serial correlation in the data. We illustrate all the new techniques described above by forecasting the productivity index of 17 OECD countries, constructed from their GDP, labor and capital stock.
Starting Page	97
Ending Page	107
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0895562X
Journal	Journal of Productivity Analysis
Volume Number	33
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15730441
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2009-08-22
Publisher Place	Boston
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Malmquist productivity index Circularity Efficiency Smooth bootstrap Forecasting intervals Accounting/Auditing Operations Research/Decision Theory Econometrics Microeconomics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Business and International Management Social Sciences Economics and Econometrics

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