NDLI: Criteria for selecting a suitable method for producing post-2000 county population estimates: A case study of population estimates in Illinois

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Shahidullah, Mohammed Flotow, Mark
Copyright Year	2005
Abstract	We compared 2000 county population estimates for Illinois against 2000 census counts. Administrative records (ADREC) and ratio correlation (Ratio-CORR) methods were used to produce two sets of controlled county estimates for 2000; a third set represented an average of the estimates reached using these methods. Another set using the ADREC method was not controlled to any estimate. Also, the 2000 estimates were adjusted for undercount in the 1990 census. We compared performance of these methods with the performance of two naive models: (i) do nothing and (ii) constant growth rate. ADREC estimates were more accurate than estimates from the Ratio-CORR or Average method in terms of Mean Absolute Percent (MAPE) or weighted MAPE. Undercount adjustment in general improved the accuracy of the estimates for all three methods. A top-down or bottom-up approach worked equally well. As a single method, ADREC performed best.
Starting Page	215
Ending Page	229
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	01675923
Journal	Population Research and Policy Review
Volume Number	24
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15737829
Language	English
Publisher	Kluwer Academic Publishers
Publisher Date	2005-01-01
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Accuracy Adjusted Administrative Records Control and Ratio Correlation Demography Economic Policy Population Economics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Demography Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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