NDLI: Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Bleaney, Michael Tian, Mo
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	This study assesses the response of the trade balance to exchange rate fluctuations across a large number of countries. Fixed-effects regressions are estimated for three country groups (industrial, developing and emerging markets) on annual data for 87 countries from 1994 to 2010. The trade balance improves significantly after a real depreciation, and to a similar degree, in the long run for all countries, but the adjustment is significantly slower for industrial countries. Emerging markets and developing countries display relatively fast adjustment. Disaggregation into exports and imports shows that the delayed adjustment in industrial countries is almost entirely on the export side. The rate of adjustment in emerging markets is slowing over time, consistent with their eventual graduation to high-income status. The ratio of trade to GDP is also highly sensitive to the real effective exchange rate, with a real depreciation of 10 % raising the trade/GDP ratio across the sample by approximately 4 %. This result, which presumably reflects movements in the prices of tradables relative to non-tradables, raises questions about the widespread use of the trade/GDP ratio as a trade policy indicator, without adjustment for real exchange rate effects.
Starting Page	655
Ending Page	675
Page Count	21
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09237992
Journal	Open Economies Review
Volume Number	25
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	1573708X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2014-02-07
Publisher Place	Boston
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Exchange rate Trade balance Exports Imports Terms of trade International Economics Development Economics European Integration Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics Economic Policy Financial Economics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Economics and Econometrics

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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