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| Content Provider | Springer Nature Link |
|---|---|
| Author | Dufrét, Gilles Jambois, Aurélia Jambois, Laurine Khayat, Guillaume |
| Copyright Year | 2016 |
| Abstract | This paper proposes a regime-dependent model to estimate fiscal multipliers in the US. Output, consumption and investment are assumed to respond to tax and spending changes in a nonlinear manner. Fiscal multipliers are time-varying because their size and sign depend upon the state of the economy (upturns and downturns). Keynesian effects appear essentially during downturns, while anti-Keynesian effects are observed during expansions. Transfer payments contributes to a higher private consumption when they are given to consumers in bad times. Reducing taxes boosts consumption in good times. Investment responds positively to lower taxes during downturns, but negatively in the upturn regime. Our results thus suggest that Keynesian effects have been associated to expansionary policies during recessions, while anti-Keynesian effects were observed during expansions illustrating situations of expansionary fiscal consolidation. The effectiveness of fiscal positive impulses increases in downturns relative to upturns. A corollary is therefore that austerity measures during recessions would have detrimental effects on the GDP and its components. |
| Starting Page | 923 |
| Ending Page | 944 |
| Page Count | 22 |
| File Format | |
| ISSN | 09237992 |
| Journal | Open Economies Review |
| Volume Number | 27 |
| Issue Number | 5 |
| e-ISSN | 1573708X |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer US |
| Publisher Date | 2016-08-05 |
| Publisher Place | New York |
| Access Restriction | One Nation One Subscription (ONOS) |
| Subject Keyword | Fiscal multipliers Regime-dependent Keynesian effects Anti-Keynesian effects International Economics Development Economics European Integration Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics Economic Policy |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Economics and Econometrics |
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