NDLI: On the initialization of tropical cyclones with a three dimensional variational analysis

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Liou, Chi Sann Sashegyi, Keith D.
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	A method of initializing tropical cyclones in high-resolution numerical models is developed by modifying a data assimilation system, the NRL atmospheric variational data assimilation system (NAVDAS), which was designed for general mesoscale weather prediction using a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) analysis with intermittent updates. The method includes the following three upgrades to overcome difficulties resulting from tropical cyclone initialization with the NAVDAS analysis. First, synthetic observation soundings are generated on 9 vertical levels at 49 points for strong storms (v $_{max}$ > 23.1 m s$^{−1}$) and 41 points for weak storms around each cyclone center to supplement the observations used by the analysis. Secondly, a vortex relocation method for nested grids is developed to correct the cyclone position in the background fields of the analysis for each nested mesh. Lastly, the 3DVAR analysis is modified to gradually reduce the horizontal length scale and geostrophic coupling constraint near the center of a tropical cyclone for minimizing the problems introduced by improper covariances and coupling constraint used in the analysis. The synthetic observations significantly improve the intensity and structure of the analysis and the track forecast. The vortex relocation significantly improves the first guess background, avoiding the large analysis corrections that would be needed to correct cyclone position, and reducing the imbalance introduced by such large analysis increments. The modifications to the analysis length scale and geostrophic coupling constraint successfully improve the inner core analysis, providing a tighter circulation, and reducing the underestimate of the mass field gradient. Among the three upgrades, the vortex relocation provides the largest improvement to the tropical cyclone initialization and forecast.
Starting Page	1375
Ending Page	1391
Page Count	17
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	63
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2011-06-10
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Tropical cyclone initialization Synthetic observations Vortex relocation 3DVAR analysis for tropical cyclones Civil Engineering Environmental Management Natural Hazards Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Geophysics/Geodesy Hydrogeology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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