NDLI: Relationships between rain and displacements of an active earthflow: a data-driven approach by EPRMOGA

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Vassallo, R. Doglioni, A. Grimaldi, G. M. Di Maio, C. Simeone, V.
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	Inclinometer and piezometer measurements have been carried out since 2005 in a slow active earthflow in a clay shale formation of the Italian Southern Apennines. Previous studies outlined the main geometrical and kinematic features of the landslide and the pore pressure response to rainfall. Displacement rates seem to depend on the hydrological conditions as suggested by their seasonal variations. The availability of long time series of data, in some periods recorded in continuum, allows the use of a data mining approach to evaluate the relations among displacement rates in different points of the landslide, and between displacement rates and rainfall. To define such relations, the evolutionary modelling technique EPRMOGA, based on a genetic algorithm, has been used in this paper. The results give a deeper insight into the landslide behaviour on the one hand and, on the other hand, show the reliability of the technique, also in building up management scenarios. In particular, the results show that the landslide displacement rates in different points of the slip surface, although characterized by different values, are linearly dependent and thus have the same time trend, supporting the hypothesis of a constant soil discharge mechanism of movement. Piezometric data in single points cannot be used, in the considered case, to forecast displacements. The obtained relations allow to quantify the displacement rate variations due to contemporary rainfall. The influence of past rainfall is shown to decrease exponentially with temporal distance. Furthermore, the EPRMOGA simulations seem to confirm that there are no other dominant causes, besides rainfall, responsible of displacement rate variations in time.
Starting Page	1467
Ending Page	1482
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	81
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2016-01-16
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Landslide Displacement Rainfall Data-driven model EPRMOGA Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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