NDLI: Impacts of ENSO and IOD on tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Mahala, Biranchi Kumar Nayak, Birendra Kumar Mohanty, Pratap Kumar
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	The impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity (intensity, frequency, genesis location, track and average lifetime) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are studied for the period 1891–2007 using cyclone e-Atlas of India Meteorological Department, Niño3.4 Index, Oceanic Niño Index and Dipole Mode Index (DMI). TCs in the present study include cyclones with maximum sustainable wind (MSW) ≥34 knots (referred as cyclonic storms) and severe cyclonic storms with MSW ≥48 knots. The study shows a total of 502 TCs over BoB during the 117-year study period at the rate of 4.29 TC per year. Seven-year running mean of TCs for the period 1891–2007 shows a decreasing trend. Correlation between Niño3.4 Index and DMI for the 117-year period is significant and positive and the significance level is higher (lower) for the period with higher (lower) TC frequencies. One-third monthly interval analysis for the 117-year period indicates first third (1–10) of November as the most favoured period of TC formation over BoB. 117-year study period is divided into years of ENSO (El Niño, La Niña and neutral ENSO) and IOD (+ve IOD, −ve IOD and no IOD) categories. Maximum frequency of TC is observed during La Niña years, −ve IOD years and also when La Niña co-occurred with −ve IOD. More severe cyclones are formed during La Niña and +ve IOD years. Genesis location of TCs indicates that during La Niña (El Niño) years, the TCs are oriented in the south-east–north-west (south-west–north-east) direction. TCs in no IOD and −ve (+ve) IOD years are more (less) in northern BoB (north of 15° N), while in southern BoB (south of 15° N), TCs are more (less) during no IOD and +ve (−ve) IOD condition. BoB is divided into four quadrants, and number of TCs in each quadrant is computed under different ENSO–IOD events. Peak direction of track movement is observed as north-east followed by north–north-west which is corroborated from the dissipation of TCs in the specific quadrant. Total TC tracks in the peak direction of track movement are maximum during El Niño and no IOD years. The study reveals that TCs with shorter lifetime are observed during El Niño and −ve IOD years, while TCs with longer lifetime are observed during La Niña, neutral ENSO and +ve IOD years. The decade with maximum TC formation is observed as 1921–1930, and the impacts of ENSO and IOD on decadal variability are distinctly observed.
Starting Page	1105
Ending Page	1125
Page Count	21
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	75
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2014-08-31
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	El Niño-Southern Oscillation Indian Ocean Dipole Tropical cyclone Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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