NDLI: Study on runoff simulation of the upstream of Minjiang River under future climate change scenarios

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Huang, Shifeng Zang, Wenbin Xu, Mei Li, Xiaotao Xie, Xuecheng Li, Zhongmin Zhu, Jisheng
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	Climate change is one of the main factors that affect runoff changes. In the upstream of Minjiang River, the temperature increased significantly in the last 50 years, while the precipitation decreased on the contrary. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on site runoff, watershed runoff depth and evaporation, nine climate scenarios are assumed based on rainfall and temperature indicators. A SWAT model of Minjiang River is constructed, and runoff simulation is carried out with the nine scenarios. The results show that if precipitation increases or decreases 20 %, the change rate of runoff depth will increase or decrease 28–32 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of runoff depth will decrease or increase 1–6 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of the potential evaporation will increase or decrease 5–16 %, and the actual evaporation rate of variation will increase or decrease 1–6 %. Overall, precipitation variation has greater effect on simulated runoff than temperature variation dose. In addition, temperature variation has more obvious effect on the runoff simulation results in dry years than in wet years. The actual evaporation of watershed depends on evaporation capacity and precipitation and increases with the increasing of the potential evaporation and precipitation. The study also shows that the climate change scenarios analysis technology, combined with SWAT hydrological model, can effectively simulate the effect of climate change on runoff.
Starting Page	139
Ending Page	154
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	75
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2014-02-25
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Upstream of Minjiang River Climate change scenario SWAT model Runoff simulation Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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