NDLI: The Risk of Large Volcanic Eruptions and the Impact of this Risk on Future Ozone Depletion

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Roscoe, Howard K.
Copyright Year	2001
Abstract	Ozone depletion at mid-latitudes is caused by reactivehalogens from man-made halocarbons. The stratosphericsulphate aerosol which follows large volcaniceruptions enhances (multiplies) this ozone depletion(it has no effect on ozone without halocarbons). Mid-latitude depletion almost doubled for the twoyears after Mt. Pinatubo. Although the MontrealProtocol is expected to reduce atmospheric amounts ofhalocarbons in the 21st century, stratospheric ozonewill be at risk of depletion enhancement by largeeruptions for the next 50 years. Mechanisms ofvolcanoes suggest that large eruptions are random andthat their global rate is constant for severalcenturies. Measurements of large eruptions during thelast 1000 years in ice cores have a remarkable fit toa Poisson distribution, reinforcing the conclusionthat the global incidence is random and at a constantrate for this period. From this rate, the probabilityof one or more eruptions with at least the ozone-lossenhancement of Pinatubo is 58 % in 50 years. Thisprobability is large enough to be of serious concernfor future mid-latitude ozone loss.
Starting Page	231
Ending Page	246
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	23
Issue Number	2-3
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Kluwer Academic Publishers
Publisher Date	2001-01-01
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Geophysics/Geodesy Hydrogeology Geotechnical Engineering Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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