NDLI: Forewarning of sustainable utilization of regional water resources: a model based on BP neural network and set pair analysis

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Jin, Ju Liang Wei, Yi Ming Zou, Le Le Liu, Li Zhang, Wei wei Zhou, Yu liang
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	Early warning for sustainable utilization of regional water resources is an important control measure for regional water security management. To establish operable and quantitative forewarning model, in this paper, a new forewarning model for sustainable utilization of water resources based on BP neural network and set pair analysis (named BPSPA-FM for short) was established. In the proposed approach, the accelerating genetic algorithm–based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was suggested to determine the weights of evaluation indexes, back-propagation neural network updating model was used to predict the values of the evaluation indexes, and the set pair analysis was used to determine the function values of relative membership in variable fuzzy set of the samples. BPSPA-FM was applied to early warning for sustainable utilization of regional water resources of Yuanyang Hani terrace in Yunnan Province of China. The results show that the states of sustainable utilization in this system were near the critical value between nonalarm and slight alarm from 1990 to 2000, the states of the system fell into slight alarm and were rapidly close to intermediate alarm from 2001 to 2004, and the states of the system were predicted to be near the critical value between slight alarm and intermediate alarm from 2005 to 2010. The main alarm indexes of the system were utilization ratio of water in agriculture, control ratio of surface water, per capita water supply, per unit area irrigation water and per capita water consumption. BPSPA-FM can take full advantage of the changing information of the evaluation indexes in adjacent periods and the relationship between the samples and the criterion grades. The results of BPSPA-FM are reasonable with high accuracy. BPSPA-FM is general and can be applied to early warning problems of different natural hazards systems such as drought disaster.
Starting Page	115
Ending Page	127
Page Count	13
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	62
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2011-12-06
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Water security management Water resources sustainable utilization Forewarning model Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process Back-propagation neural network Set pair analysis Genetic algorithm Natural Hazards Environmental Management Civil Engineering Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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