NDLI: Joint return probability analysis of wind speed and rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected sea area

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Dong, Sheng Jiao, Chun Shuo Tao, Shan Shan
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	Strong wind and rainfall induced by extreme meteorological processes such as typhoons have a serious impact on the safety of bridges and offshore engineering structures. A new bivariate compound extreme value distribution is proposed to describe the probability dependency structure of annual extreme wind speed and concomitant process maximum rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected area. This probability model takes full account of the case that there may be no rainfall in a typhoon process. A case study based on the observation data of typhoon maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall intensity in Shanghai is conducted to testify the efficiency of the model. Weibull distributions with two parameters are applied to fit respective probability margins, and the joint probability distribution is constructed by Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The fitting results and K–S tests show that these models describe the original data well. The joint return periods are calculated by Poisson bivariate compound extreme value distribution we have proposed. They indicate that typhoons with no rain have smaller joint return periods, and wind speed is the main factor which impacts the change of the joint return periods.
Starting Page	1193
Ending Page	1205
Page Count	13
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	86
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2016-12-27
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Typhoon Wind speed Rainfall intensity Joint return period Safety Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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