NDLI: A proposed methodology for deriving tsunami fragility functions for buildings using optimum intensity measures

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Macabuag, Joshua Rossetto, Tiziana Ioanu, Ioanna Suppasri, Anawat Sugawara, Daisuke Adria, Bru Imamura, Fumihiko Eames, Ian Koshimura, Shunichi
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	Tsunami fragility curves are statistical models which form a key component of tsunami risk models, as they provide a probabilistic link between a tsunami intensity measure (TIM) and building damage. Existing studies apply different TIMs (e.g. depth, velocity, force etc.) with conflicting recommendations of which to use. This paper presents a rigorous methodology using advanced statistical methods for the selection of the optimal TIM for fragility function derivation for any given dataset. This methodology is demonstrated using a unique, detailed, disaggregated damage dataset from the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami (total 67,125 buildings), identifying the optimum TIM for describing observed damage for the case study locations. This paper first presents the proposed methodology, which is broken into three steps: (1) exploratory analysis, (2) statistical model selection and trend analysis and (3) comparison and selection of TIMs. The case study dataset is then presented, and the methodology is then applied to this dataset. In Step 1, exploratory analysis on the case study dataset suggests that fragility curves should be constructed for the sub-categories of engineered (RC and steel) and non-engineered (wood and masonry) construction materials. It is shown that the exclusion of buildings of unknown construction material (common practice in existing studies) may introduce bias in the results; hence, these buildings are estimated as engineered or non-engineered through use of multiple imputation (MI) techniques. In Step 2, a sensitivity analysis of several statistical methods for fragility curve derivation is conducted in order to select multiple statistical models with which to conduct further exploratory analysis and the TIM comparison (to draw conclusions which are non-model-specific). Methods of data aggregation and ordinary least squares parameter estimation (both used in existing studies) are rejected as they are quantitatively shown to reduce fragility curve accuracy and increase uncertainty. Partially ordered probit models and generalised additive models (GAMs) are selected for the TIM comparison of Step 3. In Step 3, fragility curves are then constructed for a number of TIMs, obtained from numerical simulation of the tsunami inundation of the 2011 GEJE. These fragility curves are compared using K-fold cross-validation (KFCV), and it is found that for the case study dataset a force-based measure that considers different flow regimes (indicated by Froude number) proves the most efficient TIM. It is recommended that the methodology proposed in this paper be applied for defining future fragility functions based on optimum TIMs. With the introduction of several concepts novel to the field of fragility assessment (MI, GAMs, KFCV for model optimisation and comparison), this study has significant implications for the future generation of empirical and analytical fragility functions.
Starting Page	1257
Ending Page	1285
Page Count	29
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	84
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2016-08-11
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Tsunami damage Empirical fragility curves Generalised linear models Generalised additive models Ordinary least squares Cross validation Bootstrap techniques Multiple imputation Intensity measures Inundation simulation Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami 2011 Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Empirical fragility assessment of buildings affected by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami using improved statistical models

Building damage characteristics based on surveyed data and fragility curves of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

Empirical fragility assessment of buildings affected by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami using improved statistical models

Tsunami damage to coastal defences and buildings in the March 11th 2011 M w 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami

Accounting for spatial correlation in tsunami evacuation destination choice: a case study of the Great East Japan Earthquake

Tsunami inundation area and run-up height in the Iwate coastal region following the Great East Japan Earthquake as estimated from aerial photographs and digital elevation data

Lessons Learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami: Performance of Tsunami Countermeasures, Coastal Buildings, and Tsunami Evacuation in Japan

Managing and bridging communities in temporary housing: case of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in Kesennuma City, Japan

Damage from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami - A quick report

A proposed methodology for deriving tsunami fragility functions for buildings using optimum intensity measures

Similar Documents

Empirical fragility assessment of buildings affected by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami using improved statistical models

Building damage characteristics based on surveyed data and fragility curves of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

Empirical fragility assessment of buildings affected by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami using improved statistical models

Tsunami damage to coastal defences and buildings in the March 11th 2011 M w 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami

Accounting for spatial correlation in tsunami evacuation destination choice: a case study of the Great East Japan Earthquake

Tsunami inundation area and run-up height in the Iwate coastal region following the Great East Japan Earthquake as estimated from aerial photographs and digital elevation data

Lessons Learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami: Performance of Tsunami Countermeasures, Coastal Buildings, and Tsunami Evacuation in Japan

Managing and bridging communities in temporary housing: case of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in Kesennuma City, Japan

Damage from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami - A quick report

A proposed methodology for deriving tsunami fragility functions for buildings using optimum intensity measures