NDLI: Integrating statistical information concerning historical floods: ranking and interval return period estimation

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Fernández, Elena Colubi, Ana González Rodríguez, Gil Anadón, Soledad
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	The importance of the historical information in flood analysis has previously been underlined. In this context, we present an integral methodology aimed at the establishment of return periods of different flood units on the unique basis of historical data. Specifically, the reconstruction of the flood chronology extended back to 1900, complemented with a new (historical data-based) event intensity index, and the return period estimation will be addressed. Since some of the historical data are collected from interviews and other sources with different degrees of precision and reliability, two kinds of uncertainty will be considered; namely the statistical variability and the imprecision. We propose an innovative methodology involving intervals (ranges), fuzzy sets, and weights to formalize and average the criteria that determine the importance of the different events. On the other hand, to take into account the statistical variability, we propose to estimate the return period in a flexible and efficient way by considering bootstrap confidence intervals. The methodology is particularly useful at ungauged, or partially gauged, flood inundation areas, where the existing flow gauge stations do not give the flood series at the point of interest. A case study developed in Spain is discussed. The results are supported by two recent events, which have been mapped at 1:5000 scale.
Starting Page	459
Ending Page	483
Page Count	25
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	62
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2012-01-28
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Flooding Geomorphological–historical information Interval data Fuzzy sets Ranking Return period Bootstrap confidence interval Civil Engineering Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hydrogeology Natural Hazards Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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