NDLI: Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Tosuglu, Fatih Can, Ibrahim
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	The main objective of this study was to model the joint probability distributions of meteorological droughts of Turkey using copulas. Monthly rainfall data covering of period 1966–2006 from 173 gauge stations uniformly distributed across Turkey is considered for this aim. The principal component analysis is used to identify homogenous rainfall regions of Turkey. For meteorological drought analysis of the monthly rainfall series, standardized precipitation index method is used and the crucial drought characteristics, namely drought duration and severity, are determined. Marginal probability distributions of these characteristics are identified by fitting Weibull, two-parameter Lognormal, generalized Pareto, Gamma, Normal, Logistic, log-Logistic, generalized Extreme Value and Exponential distributions. Based on the Chi-square (χ $^{2}$) goodness-of-fit test, the two-parameter Lognormal distribution is indicated as the best suitable for the duration series, whereas the Gamma, Weibull and generalized Pareto distributions show better fit for the severity series. As these drought characteristics are highly correlated and follow different probability distributions, copula functions are used to construct the joint distribution function of drought duration and severity series. Four types of bivariate copulas (i.e., Frank, Clayton, Gumbel–Hougaard and Ali–Mikhail–Haq) are evaluated for modeling and the best-fit copula for each homogenous region is then employed to estimate conditional probability properties and joint return periods of the drought characteristics. The drought properties of each region are hereby comprehensively explained and the results indicated here can be helpful in the assessment of the adequacies of water supply systems under drought conditions in all regions.
Starting Page	1457
Ending Page	1477
Page Count	21
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	82
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2016-02-26
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Copula Drought duration and severity Joint distribution Marginal probability distribution Standardized precipitation index (SPI) Turkey Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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