NDLI: Extreme storm surge hazard estimation in lower Manhattan : Clustered separated peaks-over-threshold simulation (CSPS) method

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Lopeman, Madeleine Deodatis, George Franco, Guillermo
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	The coastal destruction wreaked by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 prompted motivation to estimate the event’s return period. The Clustered Separated Peaks-over-threshold Simulation (CSPS) method for estimating return periods uses a Monte Carlo simulation of storm surge activity based on statistics derived from tidal gauge data at the Battery, New York in lower Manhattan. The data are separated into three independent components (storm surge, tidal cycle and sea level rise) because different physical processes govern different components of water level. Peak storm surge heights are fit to the generalized Pareto distribution, chosen for its ability to fit a wide tail to limited data. The algorithm incorporates the evolution of storm surge over surge duration. The CSPS suggests that the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s peak water level is 103 years (95% confidence interval 38–452 years), significantly lower than previously published return periods. The estimated 100-year water level is 5.23 m above the station datum (or 3.39 m above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988, or 3.45 m above mean sea level). With 1 m of sea level rise (holding all other climatological conditions constant), this water level would become the 28-year event. Although the method’s exclusion of surge-tide interaction and its reliance on a 90-year tidal gauge time history may limit the reliability of high return period estimates, application of the CSPS method to lower Manhattan suggests that storm surge hazard in the New York Harbor has, until now, been underestimated.
Starting Page	355
Ending Page	391
Page Count	37
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0921030X
Journal	Natural Hazards
Volume Number	78
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15730840
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-03-29
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Storm surge Natural hazards Extreme events Peaks-over-threshold Hurricane Sandy Climate change Natural Hazards Hydrogeology Geophysics/Geodesy Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Water Science and Technology

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Extreme storm surge hazard estimation in lower Manhattan : Clustered separated peaks-over-threshold simulation (CSPS) method