NDLI: An assessment of oil supply and its implications for future prices

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United Nations International Framework Classification for Reserves/Resources-Solid Fuels and Mineral Commodities-final version : UN/ECE Document Energy/WP.1/R.70 of February 17, 1997 Original: English. 23 pages

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Book reviews : Natural Resources Research , Volume 7 , Issue 2

Natural Resources Research : Volume 7, Issue 1, March 1998

Natural Resources Research : Volume 6

An assessment of oil supply and its implications for future prices

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Santini, Danilo J.
Copyright Year	1998
Abstract	This paper examines three issues related to both the U.S. and world oil supply: (1) the nature of the long-term, postpeak production profile for the U.S. and, by inference, other regions (the Hubbert curve is used as a “strawman” model); (2) implications on U.S. energy security of using a modified Hubbert-type conceptual model of prepeak production, testing the adequacy of Latin America to be the primary source of U.S. oil imports; and (3) the cyclic behavior of oil prices. it shows that U.S. production will exhibit a more attenuated decline than that simulated by the Hubbert curve and not decline to zero. it asserts that U.S. production is better predicted by past reserves than past production, but that this argument does not apply to nations that keep a much larger proportion of reserves in the ground. Such nations could considerably expand production without any growth in reserves. The paper concedes that the potential total production for these nations could be examined with a Hubbert curve model linked to reserves, but with great uncertainty. Such an uncertain optimistic forecast predicts that the cumulative production of Latin America could far exceed that of the United States. Nevertheless, a statistical model of oil prices since 1870 implies that real wellhead oil prices in the United States are on a long-term upward path, underlying a much more “noisy” cyclical pattern estimated to include 22- and 27-year cycles. The statistical model predicts a severe oil shock within a few years (of 1998) but also predicts that through 2030, real oil prices will not reach 1981 levels again. The paper examines U.S. and world trends in seismic exploration, drilling locations and depths, drilling costs, oil/gas reserves, oil/gas use rates, and oil demand. After taking these factors into consideration, it concludes that the statistical model of oil prices cannot be disputed, despite its lack of basis in economic theory.
Starting Page	101
Ending Page	121
Page Count	21
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09611444
Journal	Natural Resources Research
Volume Number	7
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15738981
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	1998-01-01
Publisher Place	Boston
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Oil supply energy security natural gas oil price Hubbert Math. Applications in Geosciences Economic Geology Sedimentology Hydrogeology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental Science

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
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8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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