NDLI: Oil- and gas-resource assessment in certain South American Basins—An application of ARDS (Ver. 5.0) to complex exploration and discovery histories

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Natural Resources Research : Volume 6, Issue 3, September 1997

Natural Resources Research : Volume 6, Issue 2, June 1997

Natural Resources Research : Volume 6, Issue 1, March 1997

Oil- and gas-resource assessment in certain South American Basins—An application of ARDS (Ver. 5.0) to complex exploration and discovery histories

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Drew, Lawrence J. Schuenemeyer, John H.
Copyright Year	1997
Abstract	The modified Arps-Roberts Discovery Process Modeling System [ARDS (Ver. 4.01)] has recently been upgraded [ARDS (Ver. 5.0)] and applied to a wide variety of field discovery and wildcat drilling data with differing characteristics. ARDS is designed to forecast the number and sizes of undiscovered fields in an exploration play or basin by using historical drilling and discovery data. Fields used as input may be grown or ungrown. Two models for field growth—one offshore and the other onshore—have been implemented (Schuenemeyer and Drew, 1996). Uncertainty attributable to field growth is estimated via simulation. This upgrade of ARDS has been designed to handle situations when the data cannot be partitioned into homogeneous regions, but where estimation of the number of remaining oil and gas fields is still meaningful. In this upgrade of ARDS, many restrictions, which include those on the number of fields and wildcat wells required to forecast the size distribution of the oil and gas fields that remain to be discovered in an exploration play, a basin, or other target area, have been removed. In addition, flexibility has been gained by reforming the criteria for convergence of the model. In all, 32 basins and subbasins in South America were examined, 18 of which had sufficient data to be amenable to forecasting the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources directly by using the Petroconsultants Inc. (1993) field discovery and wildcat drilling data. Overall, ARDS (Ver. 5.0) performed well in estimating the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the 18 basins and subbasins. The aggregate volume of undiscovered petroleum resources was characterized by using histograms of the distribution of resources and the following five statistics: the mean, the 80% trimmed mean, and the 10,50 (median), and 90 quantiles. More than 38 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in fields that contain more than one million BOE individually were forecast as remaining to be discovered. The largest basin, the Campos (Brazil), is forecast to contain nearly 10 billion BOE undiscovered resources. The East Venezuela Basin (excluding the Furrial Trend) is forecast to contain about 8 billion BOE; the Austral-Magallanes Basin (Argentina and Chile), about 7 billion BOE; and the Napo (Colombia and Ecuador) and the Neuquen (Argentina) Basins, between 3 billion and 4 billion BOE. A subset of these basins that illustrate the increased flexibility of ARDS are discussed.
Starting Page	295
Ending Page	315
Page Count	21
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09611444
Journal	Natural Resources Research
Volume Number	6
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	15738981
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	1997-01-01
Publisher Place	Boston
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Oil- and gas-resource assessment discovery process modeling Arps-Roberts South America Math. Applications in Geosciences Economic Geology Sedimentology Hydrogeology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental Science

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