NDLI: Global biodiversity scenarios and landscape ecology

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Cumming, Graeme S.
Copyright Year	2006
Abstract	The composition of ecological communities is both cause and consequence of landscape pattern. Predicting biodiversity change involves understanding not only ecology and evolution, but also complex changes in human societies and economies. Scenarios offer a less rigid approach to thinking about biodiversity change in a policy and management context. They shift the focus of research and management from making singular predictions and developing single ‘best’ strategies to exploring uncertainties and assessing the outcomes of alternative policies. The four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) biodiversity scenarios illustrate current approaches to biodiversity estimation in global scenarios. The MA biodiversity scenarios are built around the species–area relationship and the magnitudes of a few area-dependent processes such as nitrogen deposition and climate change. Some of the most obvious landscape-related omissions from the MA scenarios are pattern-process feedbacks, scale dependencies, and the role of landscape configuration. While the MA has set a new standard for biodiversity scenarios, future exercises would benefit from a more multi-scale and more mechanistic framework. I use examples from research on the landscape ecology and biogeography of African ticks to illustrate how a hypothesis-based approach can be used to analyse the multi-scale, multi-level drivers of change in patterns of species occurrences. Two of the most important challenges for the future development of both landscape ecology and biodiversity scenarios are to become more mechanistic (less pattern-based) and more general (applicable across different landscapes).
Starting Page	671
Ending Page	685
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09212973
Journal	Landscape Ecology
Volume Number	22
Issue Number	5
e-ISSN	15729761
Language	English
Publisher	Kluwer Academic Publishers
Publisher Date	2007-01-13
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	Diversity Scenario planning Species richness Ticks Ixodidae Climate change Millennium Assessment Policy Management Scale Species–area relationship Plant Sciences Ecology Forestry Forestry Management Plant Ecology Landscape Ecology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geography, Planning and Development Ecology Nature and Landscape Conservation

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