NDLI: Modeling urban growth in the middle basin of the Heihe River, northwest China

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Liang, Youjia Liu, Lijun
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	The middle basin of Heihe River has witnessed rapid urban growth and excessive agricultural activities during the last two decades, mainly because of its economic development and increasing population pressure. In this study, we aimed to understand the growth dynamics of the region, to forecast its future expansion, and to provide a basis for regional management. We calibrated and validated a SLEUTH model with historical data derived from different sources, which comprised remotely sensed and strategic planning data records from 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2009. Three scenarios based on local regional ecological planning were designed to simulate the spatial pattern of urban growth in different conditions. The first scenario allowed urban expansion without any additional managed growth limitations and the continuation of the actual historical trend. The second scenario was limited based on environmental considerations and managed growth was assumed with moderate protection. The third scenario simulated managed growth with strict protection on wetland reserves and productive agricultural areas in the study area. We consider that the results of these models of growth in the study area obtained under different scenarios are of great potential use to city managers and stakeholders. We also suggest that scale sensitivity and spatial accuracy are among the factors that must be considered in practical applications. We urge future researchers to build on the present study to produce models for similar regions in northwest China.
Starting Page	1725
Ending Page	1739
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09212973
Journal	Landscape Ecology
Volume Number	29
Issue Number	10
e-ISSN	15729761
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2014-09-09
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	SLEUTH Urban growth Regional modeling Cellular automata GIS Landscape Ecology Plant Ecology Forestry Management Forestry Ecology Plant Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geography, Planning and Development Ecology Nature and Landscape Conservation

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