NDLI: Terrorism Risk, Resilience and Volatility: A Comparison of Terrorism Patterns in Three Southeast Asian Countries

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	White, Gentry Porter, Michael D. Mazerolle, Lorraine
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity.Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia.Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.
Starting Page	295
Ending Page	320
Page Count	26
File Format	PDF
ISSN	07484518
Journal	Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Volume Number	29
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15737799
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2012-10-05
Publisher Place	Boston
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Terrorism Risk Volatility Resilience Point process Hawkes Self-exciting Criminology & Criminal Justice Sociology Methodology of the Social Sciences Statistics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Law Pathology and Forensic Medicine

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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