NDLI: Dissecting the Prevalence and Incidence of Offending During the Crime Drop of the 1990s

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Berg, Mark T. Baumer, Eric Rosenfeld, Richard Loeber, Rolf
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	To evaluate whether the 1990s crime drop reflects a decrease in offending prevalence (the fraction of the population engaged in crime), offending incidence (the frequency of offending among active criminals), or some combination of the two.We use individual-level longitudinal data on adolescent offending patterns from the Pittsburgh Youth study (PYS), integrating information from the youngest and oldest cohorts to compare offending among 17–18 year old males at the beginning and end of the 1990s. Logistic and negative binomial regression models are estimated to assess whether there are significant differences in offending prevalence and incidence during the 1990s.The reduction in property crime rates in the PYS sample during the 1990s can be attributed to declines in both offending prevalence and incidence. The overall decline in serious violence during the 1990s for the full sample was primarily the result of a falloff in prevalence. However, for black youth our results indicate significant reductions in both the prevalence and incidence of serious violence. We did not detect a significant difference in illegal drug sales during the period.Using longitudinal data on individuals to decompose aggregate crime trends into changes in the prevalence and incidence of offending offers insights into the nature of the 1990s crime drop that cannot be discerned from aggregate crime data. Future research should build on the current study by examining the specific mechanisms that influence change over time in crime prevalence, incidence, or both.
Starting Page	377
Ending Page	396
Page Count	20
File Format	PDF
ISSN	07484518
Journal	Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Volume Number	32
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15737799
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2016-02-16
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Crime trends Crime decline Youth violence Longitudinal Criminology & Criminal Justice Sociology Methodology of the Social Sciences Statistics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Law Pathology and Forensic Medicine

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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