NDLI: Probability model for estimating colorectal polyp progression rates

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Gopalappa, Chaitra Aydogan Cremaschi, Selen Das, Tapas K. Orcun, Seza
Copyright Year	2010
Abstract	According to the American Cancer Society, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cause of cancer related deaths in the United States. Experts estimate that about 85% of CRCs begin as precancerous polyps, early detection and treatment of which can significantly reduce the risk of CRC. Hence, it is imperative to develop population-wide intervention strategies for early detection of polyps. Development of such strategies requires precise values of population-specific rates of incidence of polyp and its progression to cancerous stage. There has been a considerable amount of research in recent years on developing screening based CRC intervention strategies. However, these are not supported by population-specific mathematical estimates of progression rates. This paper addresses this need by developing a probability model that estimates polyp progression rates considering race and family history of CRC; note that, it is ethically infeasible to obtain polyp progression rates through clinical trials. We use the estimated rates to simulate the progression of polyps in the population of the State of Indiana, and also the population of a clinical trial conducted in the State of Minnesota, which was obtained from literature. The results from the simulations are used to validate the probability model.
Starting Page	1
Ending Page	21
Page Count	21
File Format	PDF
ISSN	13869620
Journal	Health Care Management Science
Volume Number	14
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15729389
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2010-10-05
Publisher Place	Boston
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Colorectal cancer Disease progression CRC intervention Polyp progression CRC simulation Applied probability Business/Management Science Econometrics Management/Business for Professionals Health Informatics Health Administration Operations Research/Decision Theory
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Health Professions Medicine

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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