NDLI: Changes in phosphorus use and losses in the food chain of China during 1950

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Bai, Zhaohai Ma, Lin Ma, Wenqi Qin, Wei Velthof, Gerard L. Oenema, Oene Zhang, Fusuo
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	China has become the largest mineral phosphorus (P) fertilizer consumer in the world, but current use is not sustainable. Here, we report on a quantitative analysis of the P use and losses in the food production–consumption chain and of their relationships with socio-economic indicators for the years 1950–2010. Pathways to a more sustainable P use in 2030 were explored through scenario analyses, using the Nutrient flows in Food chains, Environment and Resource use model. Non-linear relationships were observed between changes in P use and changes in gross domestic production (GDP), suggesting a decoupling of P use from the main economic driver. More or less linear relationships were observed between changes in P use and changes in the percentages of vegetable and fruit and animal derived food in human diets. Total P losses increased from 0.2 Tg in 1950 to 3.1 Tg in 2010, while P use efficiency in the food chain decreased from 35 % in 1950 to 6 % in 2010. Our estimates suggest that 79 Tg P has accumulated in agricultural soils, 16 Tg P accumulated in landfill, and 48 Tg P has leached or has been discharged to water bodies during the past 60 years. Most of the accumulation and discharges took place in the last 10 years. We analyzed five options for increasing P use efficiency in the food chain by 2030, i.e., balanced P fertilization in crop production, precision animal P feeding, improved manure management, diet changes, and the integration of these four options. The integral adoption of these four options will increase P use efficiency in the food chain from 6 % in 2010 to 26 % in 2030. Total mineral P fertilizer use will decrease by 69 % and P losses by 68 % relative to the business as usual scenario. In conclusion, current P fertilizer use and losses are coupled to dietary choices, but have become decoupled from GDP. Further decoupling may occur when P use is defined by science-based P requirements for crops, animals and humans.
Starting Page	361
Ending Page	372
Page Count	12
File Format	PDF
ISSN	13851314
Journal	Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems
Volume Number	104
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15730867
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-10-01
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Scenario analysis Fertilizer Losses Crop Animal Socio-economic Agriculture
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Agronomy and Crop Science Soil Science

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