NDLI: Do people plan?

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Suckling, John Hey, John D. Bone, John
Copyright Year	2007
Abstract	We report the results of an experimental investigation of a key axiom of economic theories of dynamic decision making—namely, that agents plan. Inferences from previous investigations have been confounded with issues concerning the preference functionals of the agents. Here, we present an innovative experimental design which is driven purely by dominance: if preferences satisfy dominance, we can infer whether subjects are planning or not. We implement three sets of experiments: the first two (the Individual Treatments) in which the same player takes decisions both in the present and the future; and the third (the Pairs Treatment) in which different players take decisions at different times. The two Individual treatments differed in that, in one, the subjects played sequentially, while, in the other, the subjects had to pre-commit to their future move. In all contexts, according to economic theory, the players in the present should anticipate the decision of the player in the future. We find that over half the participants in all three experimental treatments do not appear to be planning ahead; moreover, their ability to plan ahead does not improve with experience, except possibly when we force subjects to pre-commit to their future decision. These findings identify an important lacuna in economic theories, both for individual behaviour and for behaviour in games.
Ending Page	25
Page Count	14
Starting Page	12
File Format	PDF
ISSN	13864157
e-ISSN	15736938
Journal	Experimental Economics
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	12
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2007-11-07
Publisher Place	Boston
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Backward induction Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual Dominance Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Group Behavior Operations Research/Decision Theory Strategies Microeconomics Public Finance & Economics Economic Theory Intertemporal Choice: General Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty Planning Methodology and the History of Economic Thought
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Economics, Econometrics and Finance

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