NDLI: Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries : Hypothèses de projections stochastiquesàlong terme des populations de 18 pays européens

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Alders, Maarten Keilman, Nico Cruijsen, Harri
Copyright Year	2007
Abstract	The aim of the ‘Uncertain Population of Europe’(UPE) project was to compute long-term stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a general methodology for constructing predictive distributions for fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions underlying stochastic population forecasts can be assessed by analysing errors in past forecasts or model-based estimates of forecast errors, or by expert judgement. All three approaches have been used in the project. This article summarizes and discusses the results of the three approaches. It demonstrates how the—sometimes conflicting—results can be synthesized into a consistent set of assumptions about the expected levels and the uncertainty of total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth of men and women, and net migration for 18 European countries.Le but du projet ‘Uncertain population of Europe’(UPE) était de calculer des projections de population stochastiques (probabilistes)àlong terme des populations de 18 pays européens. Nous avons développé une méthodologie générale pour construire des distributions prédictives de fécondité, mortalité et migration. Les hypothèses sous-jacentes aux projections stochastiques de populations peuvent être élaborées en analysant les erreurs de projections passées, en effectuant une modélisation pour estimer les erreurs de projection, ou par un jugement d’expert. Les trois approches ont été appliquées dans le projet, et leurs résultats sont résumés et discutés dans cet article. Nous démontrons que les résultats, parfois contradictoires, peuvent être synthétisés pour former un ensemble cohérent d’hypothèses concernant les niveaux attendus et l’incertitude autour de l’indice synthétique de fécondité, de l’espérance de vieàla naissance des hommes et des femmes, et de la migration nette dans 18 pays européens.
Starting Page	33
Ending Page	69
Page Count	37
File Format	PDF
ISSN	01686577
Journal	European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie
Volume Number	23
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15729885
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2007-03-01
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	projection stochastique hypothèses de projection séries temporelles jugement expert modèle des erreurs d’échelle flexible Demography Sociology Human Geography Population Economics Public Finance & Economics Methodology of the Social Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Demography

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