NDLI: Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Peters, F. Mackenbach, J. P. Nusselder, W. J.
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	Since 1950, most developed countries have exhibited structural changes in mortality decline. This complicates extrapolative forecasts, such as the commonly used Lee–Carter model, that require the presence of a steady long-term trend. This study tests whether the impact of the tobacco epidemic explains the structural changes in mortality decline, as it is presumed in earlier studies. For this purpose, the time index of the Lee-Carter model in males was investigated in 20 developed countries between 1950 and 2011 for possible structural changes. It was found that removing the impact of smoking from mortality trends took away more than half of the 12 detected trend breaks. For the remaining trend breaks, adjusting for smoking attenuated the degree of change in mortality decline. Taking the tobacco epidemic into account should become standard procedure in mortality forecasts to avoid a misleading extrapolation of trends. Nevertheless, more research is needed to identify additional factors, such as health-care policies and innovations in medical treatment, to explain the remaining structural changes.
Starting Page	687
Ending Page	702
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	01686577
Journal	European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie
Volume Number	32
Issue Number	5
e-ISSN	15729885
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2016-08-22
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	Tobacco epidemic Smoking Life expectancy Projection Structural change Breakpoint Demography Sociology Human Geography Population Economics Public Finance Methodology of the Social Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Demography

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