NDLI: A study on forecasting paths of genuine savings and wealth without and with carbon dioxide constraints: development of shadow price functions

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Tokimatsu, Koji Yasuoka, Rieko Nishio, Masahiro Ueta, Kazuhiro
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	This paper has developed a method for forecasting the future paths of genuine savings (GS) with and without carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions constraints. GS calculations require shadow prices, which can be endogenously determined for variables and constraints in a model. However, in case of a ‘business as usual’ model (BAU), the shadow prices required for calculating GS without constraints show theoretically zero. This research derives the shadow prices required to measure GS for the BAU case as a function of several variables available in the optimal (economically efficient) case. This function is estimated from endogenously obtained variables from a model with environmental constraints. Subsequently, this function is used to calculate shadow prices with and without CO2 constraints, which are further employed to compute future paths of GS according to two methods applied in the papers by Arrow et al. We successfully estimated GS (or GSnt; GS with changes in population and technology) under the BAU case, however, suggest that GS (or GSnt) measures depend, to a great extent, on the time span under consideration (truncation year) for wealth accounting and the accounting methods by Arrows’ papers used for its estimation. In some cases, especially according to the methodology used by Arrow’s paper in 2004 using adjusted consumption in wealth accounting, the sign of GS (or GSnt) changes from negative to positive when changes in total factor productivity are taken into consideration. These aspects should be explored before measuring (un)sustainability of a particular path based on the GS (or GSnt) indicator.
Starting Page	723
Ending Page	745
Page Count	23
File Format	PDF
ISSN	1387585X
Journal	Environment, Development and Sustainability
Volume Number	16
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15732975
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2013-12-15
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Genuine savings Sustainable development Sustainability Shadow price CO2 emissions constraints Sustainable Development Environmental Management Environmental Economics Ecology Economic Growth Economic Geology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geography, Planning and Development Economics and Econometrics Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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