NDLI: The long time scales of the climate–economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Hallegatte, Stéphane
Copyright Year	2005
Abstract	This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate–economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth.
Starting Page	277
Ending Page	289
Page Count	13
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14202026
Journal	Environmental Modeling & Assessment
Volume Number	10
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	15732967
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2005-10-05
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	climate change impacts economic growth feedback analysis Applications of Mathematics Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics Environment
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Environmental Science

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