NDLI: Emission Data Uncertainty in Urban Air Quality Modeling

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Holnicki, Piotr Nahorski, Zbigniew
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Air pollution models are often used to support decisions in air quality management. Due to the complexity of the forecasting system and difficulty in acquiring precise enough input data, an environmental prognosis of air quality with an analytical model of the air pollution dispersion is burdened with a substantial share of uncertainty, especially as regards urban areas. To ignore the uncertainty in the modeling would lead to incorrect policy decisions, with further negative environmental and health consequences. This paper presents a case study which shows how emission uncertainty of air pollutants generated by the industry, traffic, and the municipal sector relates to concentrations measured at receptor points. The computational experiment was implemented in the Warsaw metropolitan area, Poland. The main source of this adverse environmental impact is the transportation system, including the transit traffic. The Monte Carlo technique was used for assessing the key uncertainty factors. Several types of pollution species that are characteristic for the urban atmospheric environment (e.g., PM10, PM2.5, NO x , SO2, Pb) were included in the analysis. The results show significant spatial variability of the modeled uncertainty. The reason of this variability is discussed in detail. It depends not only on the category of the emission source but also on the contributing emission sources and their quantity.
Starting Page	583
Ending Page	597
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14202026
Journal	Environmental Modeling & Assessment
Volume Number	20
Issue Number	6
e-ISSN	15732967
Language	English
Publisher	Springer International Publishing
Publisher Date	2015-02-10
Publisher Place	Cham
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Air quality modeling Emission inventory Urban air pollution Uncertainty analysis Math. Application in Environmental Science Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics Operation Research/Decision Theory Applications of Mathematics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Environmental Science

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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