NDLI: A framework for evaluating regional-scale numerical photochemical modeling systems

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Dennis, Robin Fox, Tyler Fuentes, Montse Gilliland, Alice Hanna, Steven Hogrefe, Christian Irwin, John Rao, S. Trivikrama Scheffe, Richard Schere, Kenneth Steyn, Douw Venkatram, Akula
Copyright Year	2010
Abstract	This paper discusses the need for critically evaluating regional-scale (~200–2,000 km) three-dimensional numerical photochemical air quality modeling systems to establish a model’s credibility in simulating the spatio-temporal features embedded in the observations. Because of limitations of currently used approaches for evaluating regional air quality models, a framework for model evaluation is introduced here for determining the suitability of a modeling system for a given application, distinguishing the performance between different models through confidence-testing of model results, guiding model development and analyzing the impacts of regulatory policy options. The framework identifies operational, diagnostic, dynamic, and probabilistic types of model evaluation. Operational evaluation techniques include statistical and graphical analyses aimed at determining whether model estimates are in agreement with the observations in an overall sense. Diagnostic evaluation focuses on process-oriented analyses to determine whether the individual processes and components of the model system are working correctly, both independently and in combination. Dynamic evaluation assesses the ability of the air quality model to simulate changes in air quality stemming from changes in source emissions and/or meteorology, the principal forces that drive the air quality model. Probabilistic evaluation attempts to assess the confidence that can be placed in model predictions using techniques such as ensemble modeling and Bayesian model averaging. The advantages of these types of model evaluation approaches are discussed in this paper.
Starting Page	471
Ending Page	489
Page Count	19
File Format	PDF
ISSN	15677419
Journal	Environmental Fluid Mechanics
Volume Number	10
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	15731510
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2010-03-05
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Air quality model Photochemical model Model evaluation Performance evaluation Oceanography Meteorology/Climatology Hydrogeology Mechanics Environmental Physics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Environmental Chemistry Water Science and Technology

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