NDLI: Modelling Loss of Resilience in Agroecosystems: Rangelands in Botswana

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Perrings, Charles Stern, David I.
Copyright Year	2000
Abstract	Economists have recently begun to consider the questions raised by the ecological concept of resilience – a measure of the degree to which a system can be perturbed before it switches from one stability domain to another. At a theoretical level, it has been argued that the loss of resilience in an ecological-economic system involves a change in its long-run productive potential, but no consideration has yet been given to the empirical investigation of this. This paper discusses an econometric approach to the problem, using the example of semi-arid rangelands. The long-run productive potential of the system is regarded as an unobserved state variable, change in which is irreversible or at least only slowly reversible. It is estimated by applying the extended (nonlinear) Kalman filter. The paper illustrates the approach using data from Botswana for the period 1965–1993. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters associated with the loss of resilience mechanism are non-zero. They indicate a small loss of resilience event at the end of the long drought in the 1980s. However, these parameters are very imprecisely estimated and are therefore statistically insignificant. We find that the sensitivity of the system to exogenous shocks varies with fluctuations in both economic and non-economic parameters. Contrary to what is usually thought to be the case, the sensitivity of the system to exogenous shocks is only weakly affected by variations in offtake prices, but is very strongly affected by variations in the cost of herd maintenance. This suggests that offtake prices may be a weak tool for controlling the size of cattle stocks and preventing a loss of resilience. On the other hand, taxes on cattle stocks or grazing fees may be very effective.
Starting Page	185
Ending Page	210
Page Count	26
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09246460
Journal	Environmental and Resource Economics
Volume Number	16
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15731502
Language	English
Publisher	Kluwer Academic Publishers
Publisher Date	2000-01-01
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Economics general Economic Policy Environmental Economics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Economics and Econometrics Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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