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Robust quantification of parametric uncertainty for surfactant–polymer flooding

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Alkhatib, Ali King, Peter
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	Uncertainty in surfactant–polymer flooding is an important challenge to the wide-scale implementation of this process. Any successful design of this enhanced oil recovery process will necessitate a good understanding of uncertainty. Thus, it is essential to have the ability to quantify this uncertainty in an efficient manner. Monte Carlo simulation is the traditional uncertainty quantification approach that is used for quantifying parametric uncertainty. However, the convergence of Monte Carlo simulation is relatively low, requiring a large number of realizations to converge. This study proposes the use of the probabilistic collocation method in parametric uncertainty quantification for surfactant–polymer flooding using four synthetic reservoir models. Four sources of uncertainty were considered: the chemical flood residual oil saturation, surfactant and polymer adsorption, and the polymer viscosity multiplier. The output parameter approximated is the recovery factor. The output metrics were the input–output model response relationship, the probability density function, and the first two moments. These were compared with the results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation over a large number of realizations. Two methods for solving for the coefficients of the output parameter polynomial chaos expansion are compared: Gaussian quadrature and linear regression. The linear regression approach used two types of sampling: full-tensor product nodes and Chebyshev-derived nodes. In general, the probabilistic collocation method was applied successfully to quantify the uncertainty in the recovery factor. Applying the method using the Gaussian quadrature produced more accurate results compared with using the linear regression with full-tensor product nodes. Applying the method using the linear regression with Chebyshev derived sampling also performed relatively well. Possible enhancements to improve the performance of the probabilistic collocation method were discussed. These enhancements include improved sparse sampling, approximation order-independent sampling, and using arbitrary random input distribution that could be more representative of reality.
Starting Page	77
Ending Page	101
Page Count	25
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14200597
Journal	Computational Geosciences
Volume Number	18
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15731499
Language	English
Publisher	Springer International Publishing
Publisher Date	2013-11-24
Publisher Place	Cham
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Uncertainty quantification Monte Carlo simulation Polynomial chaos Probabilistic collocation method Enhanced oil recovery Surfactant–polymer flooding Earth Sciences Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hydrogeology Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics Soil Science & Conservation
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Computers in Earth Sciences Computational Theory and Mathematics Computer Science Applications Computational Mathematics

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