NDLI: The impacts of increased heat stress events on wheat yield under climate change in China

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Yang, Xuan Tian, Zhan Sun, Laixiang Chen, Baode Tubiello, Francesco N. Xu, Yinlong
Copyright Year	2017
Abstract	China is the largest wheat-producing country in the world. Wheat is one of the two major staple cereals consumed in the country and about 60% of Chinese population eats the grain daily. To safeguard the production of this important crop, about 85% of wheat areas in the country are under irrigation or high rainfall conditions. However, wheat production in the future will be challenged by the increasing occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme weather events. In this paper, we present an analysis that combines outputs from a wide range of General Circulation Models (GCMs) with observational data to produce more detailed projections of local climate suitable for assessing the impact of increasing heat stress events on wheat yield. We run the assessment at 36 representative sites in China using the crop growth model CSM-CropSim Wheat of DSSAT 4.5. The simulations based on historical data show that this model is suitable for quantifying yield damages caused by heat stress. In comparison with the observations of baseline 1996–2005, our simulations for the future indicate that by 2100 the projected increases in heat stress would lead to an ensemble-mean yield reduction of −7.1% (with a probability of 80%) and −17.5% (with a probability of 96%) for winter wheat and spring wheat, respectively, under the irrigated condition. Although such losses can be fully compensated by CO2 fertilization effect as parameterized in DSSAT 4.5, a great caution is needed in interpreting this fertilization effect because existing crop dynamic models are unable to incorporate the effect of CO2 acclimation (the growth-enhancing effect decreases over time) and other offsetting forces.
Starting Page	605
Ending Page	620
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	01650009
Journal	Climatic Change
Volume Number	140
Issue Number	3-4
e-ISSN	15731480
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2017-01-12
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Atmospheric Sciences Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change

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3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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