NDLI: Predicting thermal vulnerability of stream and river ecosystems to climate change

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Hill, Ryan A. Hawkins, Charles P. Jin, Jiming
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	We use a predictive model of mean summer stream temperature to assess the vulnerability of USA streams to thermal alteration associated with climate change. The model uses air temperature and watershed features (e.g., watershed area and slope) from 569 US Geological Survey sites in the conterminous USA to predict stream temperatures. We assess the model for predicting climate-related variation in stream temperature by comparing observed and predicted historical stream temperature changes. Analysis of covariance confirms that observed and predicted changes in stream temperatures respond similarly to historical changes in air temperature. When applied to spatially-downscaled future air temperature projections (A2 emission scenario), the model predicts mean warming of 2.2 °C for the conterminous USA by 2100. Stream temperatures are most responsive to climate changes in the Cascade and Appalachian Mountains and least responsive in the southeastern USA. We then use random forests to conduct an empirical sensitivity analysis to identify those stream features most strongly associated with both observed historical and predicted future changes in summer stream temperatures. Larger changes in stream temperature are associated with warmer future air temperatures, greater air temperature changes, and larger watershed areas. Smaller changes in stream temperature are predicted for streams with high initial rates of heat loss associated with longwave radiation and evaporation, and greater base-flow index values. These models provide important insight into the potential extent of stream temperature warming at a near-continental scale and why some streams will likely be more vulnerable to climate change than others.
Starting Page	399
Ending Page	412
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	01650009
Journal	Climatic Change
Volume Number	125
Issue Number	3-4
e-ISSN	15731480
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2014-06-25
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Atmospheric Sciences Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: the Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California

Vulnerability of Himalayan transhumant communities to climate change

Vulnerability assessment of Northern Ghana to climate variability

Assessing the vulnerability of Australian skinks to climate change

Stream temperature in the Basque Mountains during winter: thermal regimes and sensitivity to air warming

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to climate change

Climate change and river flooding: Part 2 sensitivity characterisation for british catchments and example vulnerability assessments

Relative vulnerability to climate change of trees in western North America

Predicting thermal vulnerability of stream and river ecosystems to climate change

Similar Documents

Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: the Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California

Vulnerability of Himalayan transhumant communities to climate change

Vulnerability assessment of Northern Ghana to climate variability

Assessing the vulnerability of Australian skinks to climate change

Stream temperature in the Basque Mountains during winter: thermal regimes and sensitivity to air warming

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change

Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to climate change

Climate change and river flooding: Part 2 sensitivity characterisation for british catchments and example vulnerability assessments

Relative vulnerability to climate change of trees in western North America

Predicting thermal vulnerability of stream and river ecosystems to climate change