NDLI: Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Roudier, Philippe Andersson, Jafet C. M. Donnelly, Chantal Feyen, Luc Greuell, Wouter Ludwig, Fulco
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models. The results show quite contrasted results between northern and southern Europe. Flood magnitudes are expected to increase significantly south of 60oN, except for some regions (Bulgaria, Poland, south of Spain) where the results are not significant. The sign of these changes are particularly robust in large parts of Romania, Ukraine, Germany, France and North of Spain. North of this line, floods are projected to decrease in most of Finland, NW Russia and North of Sweden, with the exception of southern Sweden and some coastal areas in Norway where floods may increase. The results concerning extreme droughts are less robust, especially for drought duration where the spread of the results among the members is quite high in some areas. Anyway, drought magnitude and duration may increase in Spain, France, Italy, Greece, the Balkans, south of the UK and Ireland. Despite some remarkable differences among the hydrological models’ structure and calibration, the results are quite similar from one hydrological model to another. Finally, an analysis of floods and droughts together shows that the impact of a +2°C global warming will be most extreme for France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Albania. These results are particularly robust in southern France and northern Spain.
Starting Page	341
Ending Page	355
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	01650009
Journal	Climatic Change
Volume Number	135
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15731480
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-11-27
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Atmospheric Sciences Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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