NDLI: The impact of climate change on regional water balances in Bangladesh

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Kirby, J. M. Mainuddin, M. Mpelasoka, F. Ahmad, M. D. Palash, W. Quadir, M.E. Shah Newaz, S. M. Hossain, M. M.
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	The probable effect of climate change on the water available for use in Bangladesh is not well known. We calculate monthly water balances for five main regions of Bangladesh to examine the likely impacts of climate change to 2050. We also examine the impact of past and potential future irrigation development. Climate change projections for rainfall in Bangladesh are uncertain, with increased rain in the wet season likely, but decreased rain also possible. Runoff is projected to vary in a manner similar to rainfall. However, assuming no change to the area of crops, all projections result in increases in irrigation water use, which leads to groundwater level declines. The impact of change (whether climate change or development) on water availability and use is greater in the Northwest region than elsewhere. For most water balance terms in most regions, irrigation development (both historic and future) is calculated to have a larger impact than climate change. Climate change is calculated to have a larger impact than irrigation development only on evapotranspiration and runoff, and possibly on groundwater levels. Model sensitivity tests suggest that model uncertainty is less than climate change uncertainty. To reverse lowered groundwater levels, Bangladesh’s policy includes greater use of surface water. While we calculate groundwater levels will rise, the viability of the policy may be affected by future changes to upstream use.
Starting Page	481
Ending Page	491
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	01650009
Journal	Climatic Change
Volume Number	135
Issue Number	3-4
e-ISSN	15731480
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2016-01-13
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Atmospheric Sciences Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
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