NDLI: Estimates of overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer associated with screening mammography

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Morrell, Stephen Barratt, Alexandra Irwig, Les Howard, Kirsten Biesheuvel, Corné Armstrong, Bruce
Copyright Year	2009
Abstract	To estimate the extent of overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer associated with screening in New South Wales, Australia, a population with a well-established mammography screening program which has achieved full geographic coverage.We calculated overdiagnosis as the observed annual incidence of invasive breast cancer in NSW in 1999–2001 (a screened population) minus the expected annual incidence in this population at the same time, as a percentage of the expected incidence. We estimated expected incidence without screening in 1999–2001 from the incidence of invasive breast cancer in: (1) women in unscreened age groups (interpolation method); and (2) women in all age groups prior to the implementation of screening (extrapolation method). We then adjusted these estimates for trends in major risk factors for breast cancer that may have coincided with the introduction of mammography screening: increasing obesity, use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and nulliparity. Finally, we adjusted for lead time to produce estimates of expected incidence in 1999–2001. These were compared with the observed incidence in 1999–2001 to calculate overdiagnosis of breast cancer associated with screening.Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer among 50–69 year NSW women was estimated to be 42 and 30% using the interpolation and extrapolation methods, respectively.Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer attributable to mammography screening appears to be substantial. Our estimates are similar to recent estimates from other screening programmes. Overdiagnosis merits greater attention in research and in clinical and public health policy making.
Starting Page	275
Ending Page	282
Page Count	8
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09575243
Journal	Cancer Causes & Control
Volume Number	21
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15737225
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2009-11-06
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Breast cancer incidence Mammography screening Overdiagnosis Hematology Epidemiology Public Health/Gesundheitswesen Oncology Biomedicine general Cancer Research
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Cancer Research Oncology

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