NDLI: Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Hooijdonk, I. G. S. Moene, A. F. Scheffer, M. Clercx, H. J. H. Wiel, B. J. H.
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically lead to weakly stable, turbulent nights; clear-sky and weak-wind conditions, on the other hand, lead to very stable, weakly turbulent conditions. Previously, the dynamical behaviour near the transition between these regimes was investigated in an idealized setting, relying on Monin–Obukhov (MO) similarity to describe turbulent transport. Here, we investigate a similar set-up, using direct numerical simulation; in contrast to MO-based models, this type of simulation does not need to rely on turbulence closure assumptions. We show that previous predictions are verified, but now independent of turbulence parametrizations. Also, it appears that a regime shift to the very stable state is signaled in advance by specific changes in the dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer. Here, we show how these changes may be used to infer a quantitative estimate of the transition point from the weakly stable boundary layer to the very stable boundary layer. In addition, it is shown that the idealized, nocturnal boundary-layer system shares important similarities with generic non-linear dynamical systems that exhibit critical transitions. Therefore, the presence of other, generic early warning signals is tested as well. Indeed, indications are found that such signals are present in stably stratified turbulent flows.
Starting Page	283
Ending Page	306
Page Count	24
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00068314
Journal	Boundary-Layer Meteorology
Volume Number	162
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15731472
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2016-10-11
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Early warning signals Critical regime transition Maximum sustainable heat flux Nocturnal boundary layer Minimum wind speed Atmospheric Sciences Meteorology Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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