NDLI: Predicting range expansion of the map butterfly in Northern Europe using bioclimatic models

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Mitikka, Varpu Heikkinen, Risto K. Luoto, Miska Araújo, Miguel B. Saarinen, Kimmo Pöyry, Juha Fronzek, Stefan
Copyright Year	2007
Abstract	The two main goals of this study are: (i) to examine the range shifts of a currently northwards expanding species, the map butterfly (Araschnia levana), in relation to annual variation in weather, and (ii) to test the capability of a bioclimatic envelope model, based on broad-scale European distribution data, to predict recent distributional changes (2000–2004) of the species in Finland. A significant relationship between annual maximum dispersal distance of the species and late summer temperature was detected. This suggests that the map butterfly has dispersed more actively in warmer rather than cooler summers, the most notable dispersal events being promoted by periods of exceptionally warm weather and southerly winds. The accuracy of the broad-scale bioclimatic model built for the species with European data using Generalized Additive Models (GAM) was good based on split-sample evaluation for a single period. However, the model’s performance was poor when applied to predict range shifts in Finland. Among the many potential explanations for the poor success of the transferred bioclimatic model, is the fact that bioclimatic envelope models do not generally account for species dispersal. This and other uncertainties support the view that bioclimatic models should be applied with caution when they are used to project future range shifts of species.
Starting Page	623
Ending Page	641
Page Count	19
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09603115
Journal	Biodiversity and Conservation
Volume Number	17
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15729710
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2007-11-06
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Bioclimatic envelope model Climate change Dispersal jump Model accuracy Range shift Species distribution modelling Tree Biology Plant Sciences Evolutionary Biology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics Nature and Landscape Conservation

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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