NDLI: Evolutionary processes make invasion speed difficult to predict

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Phillips, Ben L.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	A capacity to predict the spread rate of populations is critical for understanding the impacts of climate change and invasive species. Despite sophisticated theory describing how populations spread, the prediction of spread rate remains a formidable challenge. As well as the inherent stochasticity in the spread process, spreading populations are subject to strong evolutionary forces (operating on dispersal and reproductive rates) that can cause accelerating spread. Despite these strong evolutionary forces, serial founder events and drift on the expanding range edge mean that evolutionary trajectories in the invasion vanguard may be highly stochastic. Here I develop a model of spatial spread in continuous space that incorporates evolution of continuous traits under a quantitative genetic model of inheritance. I use this model to investigate the potential role of evolution on the variation in spread rate between replicate model realisations. Models incorporating evolution exhibited more than four times the variance in spread rate across replicate invasions compared with non-evolving scenarios. Results suggest that the majority of this increase in variation is driven by evolutionary stochasticity on the invasion front rather than initial founder events: in many cases evolutionary stochasticity on the invasion front contributed more than 90 % of the variance in spread rate over 30 generations. Our uncertainty around predicted spread rates—whether for invasive species or those shifting under climate change—may be much larger than we expect when the spreading population contains heritable variation in rates of dispersal and reproduction.
Starting Page	1949
Ending Page	1960
Page Count	12
File Format	PDF
ISSN	13873547
Journal	Biological Invasions
Volume Number	17
Issue Number	7
e-ISSN	15731464
Language	English
Publisher	Springer International Publishing
Publisher Date	2015-02-10
Publisher Place	Cham
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Expansion load Genetic drift Invasive species Mutation surfing Spatial sorting Uncertainty Climate change Ecology Freshwater & Marine Ecology Plant Sciences Developmental Biology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
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