NDLI: Estimating eradication probabilities and trade-offs for decision analysis in invasive species eradication programs

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Spring, Daniel Cacho, Oscar J.
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	Eradication of invasive species can have substantial benefits but programs often fail and have high costs. Costs can be reduced by substituting lower cost management actions for higher cost actions that have a similar impact on the probability of eradication. A first step towards minimizing costs is to determine all combinations of management actions that achieve eradication with the same probability, which is a form of trade-off analysis. Trade-off analysis can have a high computational cost when large numbers of management alternatives are compared with a complex spatial simulation model. Here, we apply a practical method for conducting trade-off analysis in which statistical methods are applied to data generated by a complex spatial model to derive a simpler model (the meta-model) that is used to determine trade-offs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study focusing on Australia’s largest eradication program, the campaign to eradicate red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta). Trade-offs were estimated for two surveillance methods, remote surveillance and ground surveillance, that are currently used in the eradication program. The methods are applied adaptively, with remote surveillance applied over all potentially infested locations (“area-wide surveillance”) and ground surveillance applied near remotely sensed detection points to find and remove remaining undetected individuals (“local surveillance”). The meta-modelling approach provided useful insights for management. When area-wide and local surveillance methods are applied adaptively, increases in the sensitivity of area-wide surveillance can allow for large reductions in the area of local surveillance and treatment. This can potentially result in substantial cost savings in circumstances where local search methods have a high cost.
Starting Page	191
Ending Page	204
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	13873547
Journal	Biological Invasions
Volume Number	17
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15731464
Language	English
Publisher	Springer International Publishing
Publisher Date	2014-05-27
Publisher Place	Cham
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Eradication probability Metamodelling Decision analysis Trade-off curves isoquants Ecology Freshwater & Marine Ecology Plant Sciences Developmental Biology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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