NDLI: Shedding light on the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Xylella fastidiosa in the Mediterranean basin

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Bosso, Lucia Febbraro, Mirko Cristinzio, Gennaro Zoina, Astolfo Russo, Danilo
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	Xylella fastidiosa is a xylem-limited gram-negative bacterium causing a high number of severe diseases to many agricultural and forestry plants. We developed a Maxent model to detect the current and future potential distribution of X. fastidiosa in the Mediterranean under climate change. For future projections, we used Hadley Centre’s HADGEM2-ES models for four representative concentration pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Maxent models achieved excellent levels of predictive performance as can be seen from AUC, TSS and AUCdiff values. The potential distribution obtained for the current time comprises Portugal, Spain, Italy, Corsica, Albania, Montenegro, Greece and Turkey as well as all countries of northern Africa and the Middle East. X. fastidiosa is not predicted to change its distribution in the Basin in response to climate change. Our study, however, highlights that X. fastidiosa may overcome the current boundaries outside Italy. Given the potentially high risk, we urge that the listed countries consider appropriate and preventive phytosanitary measures to avoid the introduction of the bacterium.
Starting Page	1759
Ending Page	1768
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF
ISSN	13873547
Journal	Biological Invasions
Volume Number	18
Issue Number	6
e-ISSN	15731464
Language	English
Publisher	Springer International Publishing
Publisher Date	2016-03-16
Publisher Place	Cham
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Biological invasion Emerging pest Maxent Olive quick decline syndrome Species distribution models Ecology Freshwater & Marine Ecology Plant Sciences Developmental Biology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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Potential distribution of Xylella fastidiosa in Italy: a maximum entropy model

Modelling the spread and control of Xylella fastidiosa in the early stages of invasion in Apulia, Italy

Isolation and pathogenicity of Xylella fastidiosa associated to the olive quick decline syndrome in southern Italy

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Cartoline dal fronte: La Ricerca in prima linea per fermare la Xylella

Shedding light on the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Xylella fastidiosa in the Mediterranean basin

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