NDLI: Partially non-ergodic region specific GMPE for Europe and Middle-East

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Kotha, Sreeram Reddy Bindi, Di Cotton, Fabrice
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	The ergodic assumption considers the time sampling of ground shaking generated in a given region by successive earthquakes as equivalent to a spatial sampling of observed ground motion across different regions. In such cases the estimated aleatory variability in source, propagation, and site seismic processes in ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is usually larger than with a non-ergodic approach. With the recently published datasets such as RESORCE for Europe and Middle-East regions, and exploiting algorithms like the non-linear mixed effects regression it became possible to introduce statistically well-constrained regional adjustments to a GMPE, thus ‘partially’ mitigating the impact of the assumption on regional ergodicity. In this study, we quantify the regional differences in the apparent attenuation of high frequency ground motion with distance and in linear site amplification with Vs30, between Italy, Turkey, and rest of the Europe-Middle-East region. With respect to a GMPE without regional adjustments, we obtain up to 10 % reduction in the aleatory variability σ, primarily contributed by a 20 % reduction in the between-station variability. The reduced aleatory variability is translated into an epistemic uncertainty, i.e. a standard error on the regional adjustments which can be accounted for in the hazard assessment through logic-tree branches properly weighted. Furthermore, the between-event variability is reduced by up to 30 % by disregarding in regression the events with empirically estimated moment magnitude. Therefore, we conclude that a further refinement of the aleatory variability could be achieved by choosing a combination of proxies for the site response, and through the homogenization of the magnitude scales across regions.
Starting Page	1245
Ending Page	1263
Page Count	19
File Format	PDF
ISSN	1570761X
Journal	Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering
Volume Number	14
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	15731456
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2016-02-05
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Ground motion prediction equations Europe and the Middle-East RESORCE Regional variations Non-ergodicity Nonlinear mixed effects regression Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology Civil Engineering Geophysics/Geodesy Hydrogeology Structural Geology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Building and Construction Geophysics Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology Civil and Structural Engineering

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