NDLI: Prediction of changes in landslide rates induced by rainfall

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Bernardie, S. Desramaut, N. Malet, J. P. Gourlay, M. Grandjean, G.
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	This work focuses on the development of a combined statistical-mechanical approach to predict changes in landslide displacement rates from observed changes in rainfall amounts. The forecasting tool FLAME (Forecasting Landslides Accelerations induced by Meteorological Events) associates (1) a statistical impulse response (IR) model to simulate the changes in landslide rates by computing a transfer function between the input signal (e.g. rainfall) and the output signal (e.g. displacement) and (2) a simple 1D mechanical (MA) model (e.g. viscoplastic rheology) to take into account changes in pore water pressure. The models have been applied to forecast the displacement rates at the Super-Sauze landslide (South East France). The performance of different combinations of models (IR model alone, MA model alone and a combination of the IR and MA models) is evaluated against observed changes in pore water pressures and displacement rates at the study site. Results indicate that the three models are able to reproduce the displacement pattern in the general kinematic regime (succession of acceleration and deceleration phases); conversely, extreme kinematic regimes such as fluidization of part of the landslide mass are not being reproduced. The approach constitutes however a robust tool to predict changes in displacement rates from rainfall or groundwater time series.
Starting Page	481
Ending Page	494
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	1612510X
Journal	Landslides
Volume Number	12
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	16125118
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2014-05-27
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Landslide Displacement pattern Prediction Monitoring Early warning Natural Hazards Geography (general) Agriculture Civil Engineering
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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