NDLI: Deviations from long-run equilibria and probabilities of devaluations: An empirical analysis of Danish realignments

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Rangvid, Jesper
Copyright Year	1997
Abstract	Deviations from Long-Run Equilibria and Probabilities of Devaluations — An Empirical Analysis of Danish Realignments. — The probabilities of realignments between the Danish krone and the D-mark are investigated for the 1979–1995 period. Two multivariate systems are estimated. In the I (1) systems, the deviations from the cointegration relations are used as explanatory variables when determining the probabilities of exchange rate changes. It is found that real imbalances in the economy have to a large extent determined the probabilities of central parity changes. Furthermore, the probabilities of central parity changes have been significantly lower after 1983.Abweichungen vom langfristigen Gleichgewicht und Wahrscheinlichkeit von Abwertungen. Eine empirische Analyse dänischer Realignments. — Der Verfasser untersucht die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Realignments zwischen der dänischen Krone und der D-Mark in der Zeit zwischen 1979 und 1995. Er schätzt zwei multivariate Systeme. In diesen I (1)-Systemen werden die Abweichungen von den Kointegrations-Beziehungen als erklärende Variable benutzt, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Wechselkursänderungen zu bestimmen. Es zeigt sich, daß reale Ungleichgewichte der Volkswirtschaft die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Paritätsänderungen weitgehend bestimmt haben. Außerdem ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Paritätsänderungen nach 1983 deutlich niedriger gewesen.
Starting Page	497
Ending Page	522
Page Count	26
File Format	PDF
ISSN	16102878
Journal	Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv
Volume Number	133
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	16102886
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	1997-09-01
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	International Economics European Integration Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics Economic Policy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Economics, Econometrics and Finance

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