NDLI: Fraud detection in play-money prediction markets

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Blume, Michael Luckner, Stefan Weinhardt, Christof
Copyright Year	2008
Abstract	Prediction markets are increasingly used to aggregate information on particular future events of interest such as elections, sports events, and Oscar winners. However, prediction markets are sensitive to manipulation and price distortions. In this paper, we show evidence for fraud in a play-money sports prediction market. In contrast to the often considered outcome manipulation in the context of political stock markets we were only looking for violations of our general terms and conditions, i.e., for traders creating multiple user accounts and trading against themselves in order to transfer cash from one account to another. We found evidence of suchlike coalitions and received complaints about it by annoyed traders. We discuss possible countermeasures in order to avoid or at least detect this kind of fraud in play-money prediction markets and present a tool which can be used to detect coalition building while operating a market.
Starting Page	395
Ending Page	413
Page Count	19
File Format	PDF
ISSN	16179846
Journal	Information Systems and e-Business Management
Volume Number	8
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	16179854
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2008-12-16
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Prediction markets Fraud detection Manipulation Coalition building Management/Business for Professionals Business Information Systems Information Systems Applications (incl.Internet)
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Information Systems

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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