NDLI: Ensemble numerical forecasts of the sporadic Kuroshio water intrusion (kyucho) into shelf and coastal waters

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Isobe, Atsuhiko Kako, Shin’ichiro Guo, Xinyu Takeoka, Hidetaka
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	The finite volume coastal ocean model downscaling ocean reanalysis and forecast data provided by the Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment (JCOPE2) are used to forecast sudden Kuroshio water intrusion events (kyucho) induced by frontal waves amplified south of the Bungo Channel in 2010. Two-month hindcast computations give initial conditions of the following 3-month forecasts computations which consist of ten ensemble members. The temperature time series computed by these ten members are averaged to compare with that actually observed in the Bungo Channel, where sudden temperature rises related to kyucho events are remarkable in February, August, and September. Overall, the intense kyucho events actually observed in these months are predicted successfully. However, intense kyucho events are forecasted frequently during the period of May through June even though intense kyucho events are absent during this period in the actual ocean. It is suggested that the present downscaling forecast model requires reliable lateral boundary conditions provided by JCOPE2 data to which numerous Argo data are assimilated to enhance the accuracy. In addition, it seems likely that the model accuracy is reduced by small eddies moving along the shelf break.
Starting Page	633
Ending Page	644
Page Count	12
File Format	PDF
ISSN	16167341
Journal	Deutsche Hydrografische Zeitschrift
Volume Number	62
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	16167228
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2012-01-17
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	JCOPE2 FVCOM Ensemble forecast Kyucho Argo Meteorology/Climatology Geophysics/Geodesy Fluid- and Aerodynamics Oceanography Environmental Monitoring/Analysis
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Oceanography

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